Davies Consulting

Strategies for Complex Organizations

Estimated Time of Restoration

Estimated Time of Restoration forecasts influence stakeholder perception after a major event, so accuracy is vital. Davies Consulting developed its Accurate Estimated Time of Restoration (ETR/ETOR) model to help utilities produce well-estimated restoration times during major incidents/outage events. 




How does it work?

  • Users input key “drivers” depicting distribution system damage, labor estimates, crew availability, and priority designations.
  • Users can continuously refine estimates as the restoration progresses and the uncertainty around inputs decreases, moving from system-wide estimates to regional/district estimates to estimates by substations and finally by circuits at the backbone, lateral, and service level.
  • Implementation of this model includes training for gathering and populating the key drivers so that the model will generate the most accurate restoration estimates possible. Davies Consulting provides continued and ongoing support as our clients processes mature and strategic vision changes.